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Statistical Distributions

BoardPaperNotes
AQAPaper 1, 2Binomial and normal in P1; Poisson in P2
EdexcelP1, P2Similar
OCR (A)Paper 1, 2Binomial in P1; normal and Poisson in P2
CIE (9709)P1, P6Binomial in P1; normal and Poisson in P6

Definition. A discrete random variable XX takes values from a countable set with Probabilities P(X=xi)=piP(X = x_i) = p_i satisfying:

  • pi0p_i \geq 0 for all ii
  • ipi=1\sum_i p_i = 1

E(X)=μ=xipiE(X) = \mu = \sum x_i\,p_i Var(X)=σ2=E(X2)[E(X)]2=xi2piμ2\mathrm{Var}(X) = \sigma^2 = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 = \sum x_i^2\,p_i - \mu^2


A Bernoulli trial is an experiment with exactly two outcomes: success (probability pp) and Failure (probability 1p1-p).

If we perform nn independent Bernoulli trials, the number of successes XX follows a Binomial Distribution: XB(n,p)X \sim B(n, p).

Derivation of the PMF. Each sequence of kk successes and nkn-k failures has probability pk(1p)nkp^k(1-p)^{n-k}. The number of such sequences is (nk)\binom{n}{k} (choosing which kk of the nn Trials are successes). Therefore:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nk,k=0,1,,nP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}, \quad k = 0, 1, \ldots, n

Proof. Let XiX_i be the indicator variable for the ii-th trial: Xi=1X_i = 1 if success, 00 if Failure.

X=X1+X2++XnX = X_1 + X_2 + \cdots + X_n.

E(Xi)=1p+0(1p)=pE(X_i) = 1 \cdot p + 0 \cdot (1-p) = p.

By linearity of expectation: E(X)=E(Xi)=npE(X) = \sum E(X_i) = np. \blacksquare

2.3 Proof that Var(X)=np(1p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p)

Section titled “2.3 Proof that Var(X)=np(1−p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p)Var(X)=np(1−p)”

Proof. E(Xi2)=12p+02(1p)=pE(X_i^2) = 1^2 \cdot p + 0^2 \cdot (1-p) = p.

Var(Xi)=E(Xi2)[E(Xi)]2=pp2=p(1p)\mathrm{Var}(X_i) = E(X_i^2) - [E(X_i)]^2 = p - p^2 = p(1-p).

Since the XiX_i are independent: Var(X)=Var(Xi)=np(1p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = \sum \mathrm{Var}(X_i) = np(1-p). \blacksquare

  • The distribution is symmetric when p=0.5p = 0.5.
  • It is skewed left when p>0.5p \gt 0.5 and skewed right when p<0.5p \lt 0.5.
  • The mode is at (n+1)p\lfloor(n+1)p\rfloor.

2.5 Direct derivation of E(X)=npE(X) = np from the PMF

Section titled “2.5 Direct derivation of E(X)=npE(X) = npE(X)=np from the PMF”

The proofs in Sections 2.2 and 2.3 use indicator variables. Here we derive the same results directly From the probability mass function using algebraic identities.

Proof. Starting from the definition of expectation applied to the binomial PMF:

E(X)=k=0nk(nk)pk(1p)nkE(X) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k \binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}

The k=0k=0 term vanishes, so begin the sum at k=1k=1. Apply the identity k(nk)=n(n1k1)k\binom{n}{k} = n\binom{n-1}{k-1}:

E(X)=k=1nn(n1k1)pk(1p)nk=npk=1n(n1k1)pk1(1p)(n1)(k1)E(X) = \sum_{k=1}^{n} n\binom{n-1}{k-1}p^k(1-p)^{n-k} = np\sum_{k=1}^{n}\binom{n-1}{k-1}p^{k-1}(1-p)^{(n-1)-(k-1)}

Substitute j=k1j = k - 1:

E(X)=npj=0n1(n1j)pj(1p)n1jE(X) = np\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{j}p^j(1-p)^{n-1-j}

By the binomial theorem, j=0n1(n1j)pj(1p)n1j=[p+(1p)]n1=1\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{j}p^j(1-p)^{n-1-j} = [p + (1-p)]^{n-1} = 1.

Therefore E(X)=npE(X) = np. \blacksquare

2.6 Direct derivation of Var(X)=np(1p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p) from the PMF

Section titled “2.6 Direct derivation of Var(X)=np(1−p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p)Var(X)=np(1−p) from the PMF”

Proof. First compute E(X(X1))E(X(X-1)):

E(X(X1))=k=0nk(k1)(nk)pk(1p)nkE(X(X-1)) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k(k-1)\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}

Terms with k=0,1k = 0, 1 are zero. Apply the identity k(k1)(nk)=n(n1)(n2k2)k(k-1)\binom{n}{k} = n(n-1)\binom{n-2}{k-2}:

E(X(X1))=k=2nn(n1)(n2k2)pk(1p)nk=n(n1)p2k=2n(n2k2)pk2(1p)(n2)(k2)E(X(X-1)) = \sum_{k=2}^{n} n(n-1)\binom{n-2}{k-2}p^k(1-p)^{n-k} = n(n-1)p^2\sum_{k=2}^{n}\binom{n-2}{k-2}p^{k-2}(1-p)^{(n-2)-(k-2)}

Substitute j=k2j = k - 2:

E(X(X1))=n(n1)p2j=0n2(n2j)pj(1p)n2j=n(n1)p2E(X(X-1)) = n(n-1)p^2\sum_{j=0}^{n-2}\binom{n-2}{j}p^j(1-p)^{n-2-j} = n(n-1)p^2

The final equality follows from the binomial theorem: j=0n2(n2j)pj(1p)n2j=1\sum_{j=0}^{n-2}\binom{n-2}{j}p^j(1-p)^{n-2-j} = 1.

Now E(X2)=E(X(X1))+E(X)=n(n1)p2+npE(X^2) = E(X(X-1)) + E(X) = n(n-1)p^2 + np.

Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2=n(n1)p2+npn2p2=npnp2=np(1p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 = n(n-1)p^2 + np - n^2p^2 = np - np^2 = np(1-p) \quad \blacksquare


3.1 Motivation from the Central Limit Theorem

Section titled “3.1 Motivation from the Central Limit Theorem”

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) states that the sum (or mean) of a large number of independent, Identically distributed random variables is approximately normally distributed, regardless of the Original distribution.

This is why the normal distribution appears so widely in nature: any quantity that is the sum of Many small independent effects (height, measurement error, etc.) will be approximately normal.

XN(μ,σ2)X \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2) has PDF

f(x)=1σ2πe(xμ)22σ2f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}\,e^{-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}}

  • Bell-shaped, symmetric about μ\mu.
  • E(X)=μE(X) = \mu, Var(X)=σ2\mathrm{Var}(X) = \sigma^2.
  • Approximately 68% of data within μ±σ\mu \pm \sigma95% within μ±2σ\mu \pm 2\sigma99.7% within μ±3σ\mu \pm 3\sigma.

If XN(μ,σ2)X \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2)Then Z=XμσN(0,1)Z = \dfrac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \sim N(0, 1).

Probabilities are found using the standard normal table or a calculator”s inverse normal function.

P(a<X<b)=P ⁣(aμσ<Z<bμσ)=Φ ⁣(bμσ)Φ ⁣(aμσ)P(a < X < b) = P\!\left(\frac{a-\mu}{\sigma} < Z < \frac{b-\mu}{\sigma}\right) = \Phi\!\left(\frac{b-\mu}{\sigma}\right) - \Phi\!\left(\frac{a-\mu}{\sigma}\right)

For large nn with np>5np \gt 5 and n(1p)>5n(1-p) \gt 5:

B(n,p)N(np,np(1p))B(n, p) \approx N(np, np(1-p))

With continuity correction: P(Xk)P ⁣(Z<k+0.5npnp(1p))P(X \leq k) \approx P\!\left(Z \lt \frac{k + 0.5 - np}{\sqrt{np(1-p)}}\right).


XPo(λ)X \sim \mathrm{Po}(\lambda) models the number of events in a fixed interval when events occur Independently at a constant average rate λ\lambda.

P(X=k)=eλλkk!,k=0,1,2,P(X = k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!}, \quad k = 0, 1, 2, \ldots

Theorem. If nn \to \infty and p0p \to 0 such that np=λnp = \lambda remains constant, then B(n,p)Po(λ)B(n, p) \to \mathrm{Po}(\lambda).

Proof.

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nk=n(n1)(nk+1)k!λknk(1λn)nk\begin{aligned} P(X = k) &= \binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k} \\ &= \frac{n(n-1)\cdots(n-k+1)}{k!} \cdot \frac{\lambda^k}{n^k} \cdot \left(1-\frac{\lambda}{n}\right)^{n-k} \end{aligned}

Consider each factor as nn \to \infty:

  • n(n1)(nk+1)nk1\dfrac{n(n-1)\cdots(n-k+1)}{n^k} \to 1 (each term ninn-i \approx n)
  • (1λn)nkeλ\left(1 - \dfrac{\lambda}{n}\right)^{n-k} \to e^{-\lambda} (using limn(1+a/n)n=ea\lim_{n\to\infty}(1+a/n)^n = e^a)

Therefore:

P(X=k)1k!λkeλ=eλλkk!P(X = k) \to \frac{1}{k!} \cdot \lambda^k \cdot e^{-\lambda} = \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!} \quad \blacksquare

4.3 Proof that E(X)=λE(X) = \lambda

Section titled “4.3 Proof that E(X)=λE(X) = \lambdaE(X)=λ”

Proof.

E(X)=k=0keλλkk!=k=1eλλk(k1)!=λeλk=1λk1(k1)!=λeλj=0λjj!=λeλeλ=λ\begin{aligned} E(X) &= \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}k \cdot \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!} = \sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{(k-1)!} \\ &= \lambda e^{-\lambda}\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\frac{\lambda^{k-1}}{(k-1)!} = \lambda e^{-\lambda}\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}\frac{\lambda^j}{j!} \\ &= \lambda e^{-\lambda} \cdot e^{\lambda} = \lambda \quad \blacksquare \end{aligned}

4.4 Proof that Var(X)=λ\mathrm{Var}(X) = \lambda

Section titled “4.4 Proof that Var(X)=λ\mathrm{Var}(X) = \lambdaVar(X)=λ”

Proof. First compute E(X(X1))E(X(X-1)):

E(X(X1))=k=2k(k1)eλλkk!=k=2eλλk(k2)!=λ2eλj=0λjj!=λ2eλeλ=λ2\begin{aligned} E(X(X-1)) &= \sum_{k=2}^{\infty}k(k-1)\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!} = \sum_{k=2}^{\infty}\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{(k-2)!} \\ &= \lambda^2 e^{-\lambda}\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}\frac{\lambda^j}{j!} = \lambda^2 e^{-\lambda} \cdot e^{\lambda} = \lambda^2 \end{aligned}

E(X2)=E(X(X1))+E(X)=λ2+λE(X^2) = E(X(X-1)) + E(X) = \lambda^2 + \lambda.

Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2=λ2+λλ2=λ\mathrm{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 = \lambda^2 + \lambda - \lambda^2 = \lambda. \blacksquare

If XPo(λ)X \sim \mathrm{Po}(\lambda) and YPo(μ)Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(\mu) are independent, then X+YPo(λ+μ)X + Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(\lambda + \mu).

The Poisson distribution is appropriate when all of the following hold:

  • Events occur independently of one another.
  • Events occur at a constant average rate λ\lambda in a fixed interval of time, space, or volume.
  • The probability of more than one event occurring in a sufficiently small sub-interval is negligible.

These are sometimes called the Poisson postulates. When they are satisfied, the number of events In any interval of length tt follows Po(λt)\mathrm{Po}(\lambda t).

Typical applications include: calls arriving at a call centre per hour, typing errors per page, Radioactive decays per second, and cars passing a checkpoint per minute.

### 4.7 Poisson approximation to the Binomial

Practical rule. When n>50n \gt 50 and p<0.1p \lt 0.1We may approximate B(n,p)B(n, p) by Po(λ)\mathrm{Po}(\lambda) where λ=np\lambda = np.

Justification. The theoretical result in Section 4.2 shows that as nn \to \infty and p0p \to 0 With np=λnp = \lambda held constant, the binomial PMF converges pointwise to the Poisson PMF. The Conditions n>50n \gt 50 and p<0.1p \lt 0.1 are practical thresholds that ensure:

  1. nn is large enough that the discrete binomial is well-approximated by a limit distribution.
  2. pp is small enough that the “rare event” assumption of the Poisson model is satisfied.
  3. λ=np\lambda = np is moderate ( 0<λ<100 \lt \lambda \lt 10), so that neither distribution is heavily concentrated at a single point.

The approximation improves as nn increases and pp decreases while λ=np\lambda = np remains fixed.


SituationDistribution
Fixed nn trials, success/failureBinomial B(n,p)B(n,p)
Events in continuous interval, rare eventsPoisson Po(λ)\mathrm{Po}(\lambda)
Continuous, bell-shapedNormal N(μ,σ2)N(\mu,\sigma^2)

A coding (or linear transformation) of a discrete random variable XX is a new random variable Y=aX+bY = aX + b where aa and bb are constants with a0a \neq 0.

Coding arises when changing units (e.g. Centimetres to metres, or Celsius to Fahrenheit) Or when shifting and scaling a distribution.

Theorem. If Y=aX+bY = aX + bThen E(Y)=aE(X)+bE(Y) = aE(X) + b.

Proof. Applying the definition of expectation to YY:

E(Y)=(axi+b)pi=axipi+bpi=aE(X)+b1=aE(X)+bE(Y) = \sum (ax_i + b)\,p_i = a\sum x_i\,p_i + b\sum p_i = aE(X) + b \cdot 1 = aE(X) + b \quad \blacksquare

The key step is pi=1\sum p_i = 1Since the probabilities sum to 1.

Theorem. If Y=aX+bY = aX + bThen Var(Y)=a2Var(X)\mathrm{Var}(Y) = a^2\mathrm{Var}(X).

Proof.

Var(Y)=E(Y2)[E(Y)]2=E[(aX+b)2][aE(X)+b]2=E[a2X2+2abX+b2]a2[E(X)]2+2abE(X)+b2=a2E(X2)+2abE(X)+b2a2[E(X)]22abE(X)b2=a2E(X2)[E(X)]2=a2Var(X)\begin{aligned} \mathrm{Var}(Y) &= E(Y^2) - [E(Y)]^2 \\ &= E[(aX + b)^2] - [aE(X) + b]^2 \\ &= E[a^2X^2 + 2abX + b^2] - \\{a^2[E(X)]^2 + 2abE(X) + b^2\\} \\ &= a^2E(X^2) + 2abE(X) + b^2 - a^2[E(X)]^2 - 2abE(X) - b^2 \\ &= a^2\\{E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2\\} \\ &= a^2\mathrm{Var}(X) \quad \blacksquare \end{aligned}

Note how the terms 2abE(X)2abE(X) and b2b^2 cancel between E(Y2)E(Y^2) and [E(Y)]2[E(Y)]^2.

### 6.4 Effect on standard deviation

Since Var(Y)=a2Var(X)\mathrm{Var}(Y) = a^2\mathrm{Var}(X)Taking square roots gives:

SD(Y)=aSD(X)\mathrm{SD}(Y) = |a|\,\mathrm{SD}(X)

The absolute value ensures the standard deviation remains non-negative regardless of the sign of aa.


Problem 1$X \sim B(10, 0.3)$. Find $P(X = 4)$, $P(X \leq 3)$And $P(X \geq 7)$.
Solution 1$P(X=4) = \binom{10}{4}(0.3)^4(0.7)^6 = 210 \times 0.0081 \times 0.1176 \approx 0.2001$.

P(X3)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)0.0282+0.1211+0.2335+0.26680.6496P(X \leq 3) = P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3) \approx 0.0282 + 0.1211 + 0.2335 + 0.2668 \approx 0.6496.

P(X7)=P(X=7)+P(X=8)+P(X=9)+P(X=10)0.0090+0.0014+0.0001+0.00000.0106P(X \geq 7) = P(X=7)+P(X=8)+P(X=9)+P(X=10) \approx 0.0090 + 0.0014 + 0.0001 + 0.0000 \approx 0.0106.

If you get this wrong, revise: The Binomial Distribution — Section 2.

Problem 2Heights of men are normally distributed with mean 175 cm and standard deviation 8 cm. Find the probability that a randomly chosen man is taller than 185 cm.
Solution 2$X \sim N(175, 64)$. $P(X \gt 185) = P\!\left(Z \gt \dfrac{185-175}{8}\right) = P(Z \gt 1.25) = 1 - \Phi(1.25) \approx 1 - 0.8944 = 0.1056$.

If you get this wrong, revise: The Normal Distribution — Section 3.

Problem 3A call centre receives an average of 4.5 calls per minute. Find the probability of receiving exactly 6 calls in a given minute, and the probability of receiving more than 8 calls.
Solution 3$X \sim \mathrm{Po}(4.5)$.

P(X=6)=e4.5(4.5)66!=0.01111×8303.777200.1281P(X=6) = \dfrac{e^{-4.5}(4.5)^6}{6!} = \dfrac{0.01111 \times 8303.77}{720} \approx 0.1281.

P(X>8)=1P(X8)=1k=08e4.5(4.5)kk!10.9804=0.0196P(X \gt 8) = 1 - P(X \leq 8) = 1 - \sum_{k=0}^{8}\dfrac{e^{-4.5}(4.5)^k}{k!} \approx 1 - 0.9804 = 0.0196.

If you get this wrong, revise: The Poisson Distribution — Section 4.

Problem 4$X \sim B(100, 0.04)$. Use the Poisson approximation to find $P(X \leq 2)$.
Solution 4$\lambda = np = 4$. $X \approx \mathrm{Po}(4)$.

P(X2)=e4(1+4+162)=e4(1+4+8)=13e40.2381P(X \leq 2) = e^{-4}\left(1 + 4 + \dfrac{16}{2}\right) = e^{-4}(1 + 4 + 8) = 13e^{-4} \approx 0.2381.

If you get this wrong, revise: Derivation as a Limit — Section 4.2.

Problem 5Find $c$ such that $P(-c \lt Z \lt c) = 0.95$ where $Z \sim N(0,1)$.
Solution 5$P(-c \lt Z \lt c) = 2\Phi(c) - 1 = 0.95 \implies \Phi(c) = 0.975$.

From tables: c1.96c \approx 1.96.

If you get this wrong, revise: Standard Normal — Section 3.4.

Problem 6The number of emails received per hour follows $\mathrm{Po}(12)$. Find the probability of receiving between 10 and 15 emails (inclusive) in a given hour.
Solution 6$X \sim \mathrm{Po}(12)$.

P(10X15)=P(X15)P(X9)P(10 \leq X \leq 15) = P(X \leq 15) - P(X \leq 9).

P(X15)0.7728P(X \leq 15) \approx 0.7728, P(X9)0.2424P(X \leq 9) \approx 0.2424.

P(10X15)0.77280.2424=0.5304P(10 \leq X \leq 15) \approx 0.7728 - 0.2424 = 0.5304.

If you get this wrong, revise: The Poisson Distribution — Section 4.

Problem 7A machine produces bolts with lengths $X \sim N(50, 0.04)$ cm. Bolts with length less than 49.7 cm or greater than 50.3 cm are rejected. Find the proportion of bolts rejected.
Solution 7$\sigma = \sqrt{0.04} = 0.2$.

P(X<49.7)=P(Z<(49.750)/0.2)=P(Z<1.5)=0.0668P(X \lt 49.7) = P(Z \lt (49.7-50)/0.2) = P(Z \lt -1.5) = 0.0668.

P(X>50.3)=P(Z>1.5)=0.0668P(X \gt 50.3) = P(Z \gt 1.5) = 0.0668.

Proportion rejected =0.0668+0.0668=0.1336= 0.0668 + 0.0668 = 0.1336 (13.36%).

If you get this wrong, revise: Finding Probabilities — Section 3.5.

Problem 8Prove that $E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b$ and $\mathrm{Var}(aX + b) = a^2\mathrm{Var}(X)$.
Solution 8$E(aX+b) = \sum(a x_i + b)p_i = a\sum x_i p_i + b\sum p_i = aE(X) + b$. ✓

Var(aX+b)=E[(aX+b)2][E(aX+b)]2=E[a2X2+2abX+b2][aE(X)+b]2\mathrm{Var}(aX+b) = E[(aX+b)^2] - [E(aX+b)]^2 = E[a^2X^2 + 2abX + b^2] - [aE(X)+b]^2 =a2E(X2)+2abE(X)+b2a2[E(X)]22abE(X)b2= a^2E(X^2) + 2abE(X) + b^2 - a^2[E(X)]^2 - 2abE(X) - b^2 =a2[E(X2)(E(X))2]=a2Var(X)= a^2[E(X^2) - (E(X))^2] = a^2\mathrm{Var}(X). ✓

If you get this wrong, revise: Expectation and Variance — Section 1.2.

Problem 9$X \sim B(200, 0.15)$. Use the normal approximation with continuity correction to approximate $P(X \gt 35)$.
Solution 9$\mu = 200(0.15) = 30$$\sigma^2 = 200(0.15)(0.85) = 25.5$$\sigma \approx 5.05$.

P(X>35)P ⁣(Z>35.5305.05)=P(Z>1.089)10.8621=0.1379P(X \gt 35) \approx P\!\left(Z \gt \dfrac{35.5 - 30}{5.05}\right) = P(Z \gt 1.089) \approx 1 - 0.8621 = 0.1379.

If you get this wrong, revise: Normal Approximation to Binomial — Section 3.6.

Problem 10If $X \sim \mathrm{Po}(3)$ and $Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(5)$ are independent, find $P(X + Y = 6)$.
Solution 10By additivity: $X + Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(3+5) = \mathrm{Po}(8)$.

P(X+Y=6)=e8(8)66!=e8×2621447200.000335×2621447200.1221P(X + Y = 6) = \dfrac{e^{-8}(8)^6}{6!} = \dfrac{e^{-8} \times 262144}{720} \approx \dfrac{0.000335 \times 262144}{720} \approx 0.1221.

If you get this wrong, revise: Additivity — Section 4.5.

Problem 11Starting from the definition $E(X) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$Derive $E(X) = np$ using the identity $k\binom{n}{k} = n\binom{n-1}{k-1}$ and the binomial theorem.
Solution 11

E(X)=k=0nk(nk)pk(1p)nk=k=1nn(n1k1)pk(1p)nkE(X) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k} = \sum_{k=1}^{n} n\binom{n-1}{k-1}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}

=npk=1n(n1k1)pk1(1p)(n1)(k1)=npj=0n1(n1j)pj(1p)n1j= np\sum_{k=1}^{n}\binom{n-1}{k-1}p^{k-1}(1-p)^{(n-1)-(k-1)} = np\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{j}p^j(1-p)^{n-1-j}

By the binomial theorem: j=0n1(n1j)pj(1p)n1j=[p+(1p)]n1=1\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\binom{n-1}{j}p^j(1-p)^{n-1-j} = [p+(1-p)]^{n-1} = 1.

Therefore E(X)=npE(X) = np.

If you get this wrong, revise: Direct derivation of E(X)=npE(X) = np from the PMF — Section 2.5.

Problem 12$X \sim \mathrm{Po}(7)$. Let $Y = 3X - 2$. Find $E(Y)$ and $\mathrm{Var}(Y)$.
Solution 12For $X \sim \mathrm{Po}(7)$: $E(X) = 7$ and $\mathrm{Var}(X) = 7$.

Using the coding formulae E(aX+b)=aE(X)+bE(aX+b) = aE(X)+b and Var(aX+b)=a2Var(X)\mathrm{Var}(aX+b) = a^2\mathrm{Var}(X):

E(Y)=3(7)2=19E(Y) = 3(7) - 2 = 19.

Var(Y)=32×7=63\mathrm{Var}(Y) = 3^2 \times 7 = 63.

Note that the additive constant 2-2 affects the mean but not the variance.

If you get this wrong, revise: Coding of Random Variables — Section 6.

Problem 13$X \sim B(80, 0.03)$. State whether the Poisson approximation is valid, giving reasons. If valid, use it to find $P(X \leq 1)$.
Solution 13Check conditions: $n = 80 \gt 50$ and $p = 0.03 \lt 0.1$. Both conditions are satisfied, so the Poisson approximation is valid with $\lambda = np = 80 \times 0.03 = 2.4$.

XPo(2.4)X \approx \mathrm{Po}(2.4).

P(X1)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)=e2.4(1+2.4)=3.4e2.43.4×0.09070.3085P(X \leq 1) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) = e^{-2.4}\left(1 + 2.4\right) = 3.4\,e^{-2.4} \approx 3.4 \times 0.0907 \approx 0.3085.

If you get this wrong, revise: Poisson approximation to the Binomial — Section 4.7.

Problem 14A discrete random variable $X$ has $E(X) = 5$ and $\mathrm{Var}(X) = 4$. Let $W = 2X + 3$. Find $E(W)$ and $\mathrm{Var}(W)$.
Solution 14$E(W) = 2E(X) + 3 = 2(5) + 3 = 13$.

Var(W)=22×Var(X)=4×4=16\mathrm{Var}(W) = 2^2 \times \mathrm{Var}(X) = 4 \times 4 = 16.

SD(W)=16=4\mathrm{SD}(W) = \sqrt{16} = 4.

If you get this wrong, revise: Coding of Random Variables — Section 6.

Problem 15Starting from $E(X(X-1)) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k(k-1)\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$Derive $\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p)$ for $X \sim B(n,p)$.
Solution 15Using $k(k-1)\binom{n}{k} = n(n-1)\binom{n-2}{k-2}$:

E(X(X1))=k=2nn(n1)(n2k2)pk(1p)nk=n(n1)p2j=0n2(n2j)pj(1p)n2j=n(n1)p2E(X(X-1)) = \sum_{k=2}^{n} n(n-1)\binom{n-2}{k-2}p^k(1-p)^{n-k} = n(n-1)p^2\sum_{j=0}^{n-2}\binom{n-2}{j}p^j(1-p)^{n-2-j} = n(n-1)p^2

Then E(X2)=E(X(X1))+E(X)=n(n1)p2+npE(X^2) = E(X(X-1)) + E(X) = n(n-1)p^2 + np.

Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2=n(n1)p2+npn2p2=npnp2=np(1p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 = n(n-1)p^2 + np - n^2p^2 = np - np^2 = np(1-p).

If you get this wrong, revise: Direct derivation of Var(X)=np(1p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p) from the PMF — Section 2.6.

Problem 16$X \sim B(120, 0.025)$. (a) Show that the Poisson approximation is appropriate. (b) Use it to find $P(X = 5)$. (c) State why the normal approximation would not be appropriate here.
Solution 16(a) $n = 120 \gt 50$ and $p = 0.025 \lt 0.1$So the Poisson approximation is appropriate. $\lambda = np = 120 \times 0.025 = 3$.

(b) XPo(3)X \approx \mathrm{Po}(3).

P(X=5)=e3×355!=e3×243120=2.025e32.025×0.04980.1008P(X = 5) = \frac{e^{-3} \times 3^5}{5!} = \frac{e^{-3} \times 243}{120} = 2.025\,e^{-3} \approx 2.025 \times 0.0498 \approx 0.1008

(c) For the normal approximation we need np>5np \gt 5 and n(1p)>5n(1-p) \gt 5. Here np=3<5np = 3 \lt 5 So the normal approximation is not appropriate. The Poisson approximation is the correct choice Since pp is small.

If you get this wrong, revise: Poisson approximation to the Binomial — Section 4.7.

Problem 17Temperatures in a city are modelled by $X \sim N(15, 9)$ in degrees Celsius. The temperature in Fahrenheit is $F = \frac{9}{5}X + 32$. Find $E(F)$, $\mathrm{Var}(F)$And $P(F \gt 68)$.
Solution 17$E(F) = \frac{9}{5}E(X) + 32 = \frac{9}{5}(15) + 32 = 27 + 32 = 59^\circ\mathrm{F}$.

Var(F)=(95)2×9=8125×9=72925=29.16\mathrm{Var}(F) = \left(\frac{9}{5}\right)^2 \times 9 = \frac{81}{25} \times 9 = \frac{729}{25} = 29.16.

SD(F)=29.16=5.4\mathrm{SD}(F) = \sqrt{29.16} = 5.4.

P(F>68)=P ⁣(Z>68595.4)=P(Z>1.667)10.9522=0.0478P(F \gt 68) = P\!\left(Z \gt \dfrac{68 - 59}{5.4}\right) = P(Z \gt 1.667) \approx 1 - 0.9522 = 0.0478.

If you get this wrong, revise: Coding of Random Variables — Section 6.


## Common Pitfalls
  1. Forgetting to check that solutions satisfy the original equation (especially with squaring both sides or dividing by variables).

  2. Dropping negative signs during algebraic manipulation. Substitute back to verify your answer.

  3. Rounding too early in multi-step calculations. Carry full precision through and round only the final answer.

  4. Confusing the domain and range of functions, or not considering restrictions (e.g., denominator cannot be zero).

The key principles covered in this topic are linked in the sub-pages above. Focus on understanding the definitions, applying the formulas or frameworks, and evaluating strengths and limitations of each approach.

Worked examples demonstrating the application of key concepts are covered in the detailed sub-pages linked above.

Mathematical thinking is about abstraction and pattern recognition. Numbers, shapes, and equations are tools for modelling reality - from calculating interest to predicting weather. The beauty of mathematics is that once a pattern is discovered, it can be applied universally. This connects algebra, geometry, and calculus into a coherent framework for understanding quantity, space, and change.