Statistical Distributions
Board Coverage
Section titled “Board Coverage”| Board | Paper | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| AQA | Paper 1, 2 | Binomial and normal in P1; Poisson in P2 |
| Edexcel | P1, P2 | Similar |
| OCR (A) | Paper 1, 2 | Binomial in P1; normal and Poisson in P2 |
| CIE (9709) | P1, P6 | Binomial in P1; normal and Poisson in P6 |
1. Discrete Random Variables
Section titled “1. Discrete Random Variables”1.1 Definition
Section titled “1.1 Definition”Definition. A discrete random variable takes values from a countable set with Probabilities satisfying:
- for all
1.2 Expectation and variance
Section titled “1.2 Expectation and variance”
2. The Binomial Distribution
Section titled “2. The Binomial Distribution”2.1 Derivation from Bernoulli trials
Section titled “2.1 Derivation from Bernoulli trials”A Bernoulli trial is an experiment with exactly two outcomes: success (probability ) and Failure (probability ).
If we perform independent Bernoulli trials, the number of successes follows a Binomial Distribution: .
Derivation of the PMF. Each sequence of successes and failures has probability . The number of such sequences is (choosing which of the Trials are successes). Therefore:
2.2 Proof that
Section titled “2.2 Proof that E(X)=npE(X) = npE(X)=np”Proof. Let be the indicator variable for the -th trial: if success, if Failure.
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By linearity of expectation: .
2.3 Proof that
Section titled “2.3 Proof that Var(X)=np(1−p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p)Var(X)=np(1−p)”Proof. .
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Since the are independent: .
2.4 Properties
Section titled “2.4 Properties”- The distribution is symmetric when .
- It is skewed left when and skewed right when .
- The mode is at .
2.5 Direct derivation of from the PMF
Section titled “2.5 Direct derivation of E(X)=npE(X) = npE(X)=np from the PMF”The proofs in Sections 2.2 and 2.3 use indicator variables. Here we derive the same results directly From the probability mass function using algebraic identities.
Proof. Starting from the definition of expectation applied to the binomial PMF:
The term vanishes, so begin the sum at . Apply the identity :
Substitute :
By the binomial theorem, .
Therefore .
2.6 Direct derivation of from the PMF
Section titled “2.6 Direct derivation of Var(X)=np(1−p)\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p)Var(X)=np(1−p) from the PMF”Proof. First compute :
Terms with are zero. Apply the identity :
Substitute :
The final equality follows from the binomial theorem: .
Now .
3. The Normal Distribution
Section titled “3. The Normal Distribution”3.1 Motivation from the Central Limit Theorem
Section titled “3.1 Motivation from the Central Limit Theorem”The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) states that the sum (or mean) of a large number of independent, Identically distributed random variables is approximately normally distributed, regardless of the Original distribution.
This is why the normal distribution appears so widely in nature: any quantity that is the sum of Many small independent effects (height, measurement error, etc.) will be approximately normal.
3.2 Definition
Section titled “3.2 Definition”has PDF
3.3 Properties
Section titled “3.3 Properties”- Bell-shaped, symmetric about .
- , .
- Approximately 68% of data within 95% within 99.7% within .
3.4 Standard normal
Section titled “3.4 Standard normal”If Then .
Probabilities are found using the standard normal table or a calculator”s inverse normal function.
3.5 Finding probabilities
Section titled “3.5 Finding probabilities”3.6 Normal approximation to Binomial
Section titled “3.6 Normal approximation to Binomial”For large with and :
With continuity correction: .
4. The Poisson Distribution
Section titled “4. The Poisson Distribution”4.1 Definition
Section titled “4.1 Definition”models the number of events in a fixed interval when events occur Independently at a constant average rate .
4.2 Derivation as a limit of the Binomial
Section titled “4.2 Derivation as a limit of the Binomial”Theorem. If and such that remains constant, then .
Proof.
Consider each factor as :
- (each term )
- (using )
Therefore:
4.3 Proof that
Section titled “4.3 Proof that E(X)=λE(X) = \lambdaE(X)=λ”Proof.
Proof. First compute :
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4.5 Additivity
Section titled “4.5 Additivity”If and are independent, then .
4.6 Conditions for the Poisson model
Section titled “4.6 Conditions for the Poisson model”The Poisson distribution is appropriate when all of the following hold:
- Events occur independently of one another.
- Events occur at a constant average rate in a fixed interval of time, space, or volume.
- The probability of more than one event occurring in a sufficiently small sub-interval is negligible.
These are sometimes called the Poisson postulates. When they are satisfied, the number of events In any interval of length follows .
Typical applications include: calls arriving at a call centre per hour, typing errors per page, Radioactive decays per second, and cars passing a checkpoint per minute.
### 4.7 Poisson approximation to the BinomialPractical rule. When and We may approximate by where .
Justification. The theoretical result in Section 4.2 shows that as and With held constant, the binomial PMF converges pointwise to the Poisson PMF. The Conditions and are practical thresholds that ensure:
- is large enough that the discrete binomial is well-approximated by a limit distribution.
- is small enough that the “rare event” assumption of the Poisson model is satisfied.
- is moderate ( ), so that neither distribution is heavily concentrated at a single point.
The approximation improves as increases and decreases while remains fixed.
5. Choosing the Right Distribution
Section titled “5. Choosing the Right Distribution”| Situation | Distribution |
|---|---|
| Fixed trials, success/failure | Binomial |
| Events in continuous interval, rare events | Poisson |
| Continuous, bell-shaped | Normal |
6. Coding of Random Variables
Section titled “6. Coding of Random Variables”6.1 Definition
Section titled “6.1 Definition”A coding (or linear transformation) of a discrete random variable is a new random variable where and are constants with .
Coding arises when changing units (e.g. Centimetres to metres, or Celsius to Fahrenheit) Or when shifting and scaling a distribution.
6.2 Effect on expectation
Section titled “6.2 Effect on expectation”Theorem. If Then .
Proof. Applying the definition of expectation to :
The key step is Since the probabilities sum to 1.
6.3 Effect on variance
Section titled “6.3 Effect on variance”Theorem. If Then .
Proof.
Note how the terms and cancel between and .
### 6.4 Effect on standard deviationSince Taking square roots gives:
The absolute value ensures the standard deviation remains non-negative regardless of the sign of .
Problem Set
Section titled “Problem Set”Problem 1
$X \sim B(10, 0.3)$. Find $P(X = 4)$, $P(X \leq 3)$And $P(X \geq 7)$.Solution 1
$P(X=4) = \binom{10}{4}(0.3)^4(0.7)^6 = 210 \times 0.0081 \times 0.1176 \approx 0.2001$..
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If you get this wrong, revise: The Binomial Distribution — Section 2.
Problem 2
Heights of men are normally distributed with mean 175 cm and standard deviation 8 cm. Find the probability that a randomly chosen man is taller than 185 cm.Solution 2
$X \sim N(175, 64)$. $P(X \gt 185) = P\!\left(Z \gt \dfrac{185-175}{8}\right) = P(Z \gt 1.25) = 1 - \Phi(1.25) \approx 1 - 0.8944 = 0.1056$.If you get this wrong, revise: The Normal Distribution — Section 3.
Problem 3
A call centre receives an average of 4.5 calls per minute. Find the probability of receiving exactly 6 calls in a given minute, and the probability of receiving more than 8 calls.Solution 3
$X \sim \mathrm{Po}(4.5)$..
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If you get this wrong, revise: The Poisson Distribution — Section 4.
Problem 4
$X \sim B(100, 0.04)$. Use the Poisson approximation to find $P(X \leq 2)$.Solution 4
$\lambda = np = 4$. $X \approx \mathrm{Po}(4)$..
If you get this wrong, revise: Derivation as a Limit — Section 4.2.
Problem 5
Find $c$ such that $P(-c \lt Z \lt c) = 0.95$ where $Z \sim N(0,1)$.Solution 5
$P(-c \lt Z \lt c) = 2\Phi(c) - 1 = 0.95 \implies \Phi(c) = 0.975$.From tables: .
If you get this wrong, revise: Standard Normal — Section 3.4.
Problem 6
The number of emails received per hour follows $\mathrm{Po}(12)$. Find the probability of receiving between 10 and 15 emails (inclusive) in a given hour.Solution 6
$X \sim \mathrm{Po}(12)$..
, .
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If you get this wrong, revise: The Poisson Distribution — Section 4.
Problem 7
A machine produces bolts with lengths $X \sim N(50, 0.04)$ cm. Bolts with length less than 49.7 cm or greater than 50.3 cm are rejected. Find the proportion of bolts rejected.Solution 7
$\sigma = \sqrt{0.04} = 0.2$..
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Proportion rejected (13.36%).
If you get this wrong, revise: Finding Probabilities — Section 3.5.
Problem 8
Prove that $E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b$ and $\mathrm{Var}(aX + b) = a^2\mathrm{Var}(X)$.Solution 8
$E(aX+b) = \sum(a x_i + b)p_i = a\sum x_i p_i + b\sum p_i = aE(X) + b$. ✓. ✓
If you get this wrong, revise: Expectation and Variance — Section 1.2.
Problem 9
$X \sim B(200, 0.15)$. Use the normal approximation with continuity correction to approximate $P(X \gt 35)$.Solution 9
$\mu = 200(0.15) = 30$$\sigma^2 = 200(0.15)(0.85) = 25.5$$\sigma \approx 5.05$..
If you get this wrong, revise: Normal Approximation to Binomial — Section 3.6.
Problem 10
If $X \sim \mathrm{Po}(3)$ and $Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(5)$ are independent, find $P(X + Y = 6)$.Solution 10
By additivity: $X + Y \sim \mathrm{Po}(3+5) = \mathrm{Po}(8)$..
If you get this wrong, revise: Additivity — Section 4.5.
Problem 11
Starting from the definition $E(X) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$Derive $E(X) = np$ using the identity $k\binom{n}{k} = n\binom{n-1}{k-1}$ and the binomial theorem.Solution 11
By the binomial theorem: .
Therefore .
If you get this wrong, revise: Direct derivation of from the PMF — Section 2.5.
Problem 12
$X \sim \mathrm{Po}(7)$. Let $Y = 3X - 2$. Find $E(Y)$ and $\mathrm{Var}(Y)$.Solution 12
For $X \sim \mathrm{Po}(7)$: $E(X) = 7$ and $\mathrm{Var}(X) = 7$.Using the coding formulae and :
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Note that the additive constant affects the mean but not the variance.
If you get this wrong, revise: Coding of Random Variables — Section 6.
Problem 13
$X \sim B(80, 0.03)$. State whether the Poisson approximation is valid, giving reasons. If valid, use it to find $P(X \leq 1)$.Solution 13
Check conditions: $n = 80 \gt 50$ and $p = 0.03 \lt 0.1$. Both conditions are satisfied, so the Poisson approximation is valid with $\lambda = np = 80 \times 0.03 = 2.4$..
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If you get this wrong, revise: Poisson approximation to the Binomial — Section 4.7.
Problem 14
A discrete random variable $X$ has $E(X) = 5$ and $\mathrm{Var}(X) = 4$. Let $W = 2X + 3$. Find $E(W)$ and $\mathrm{Var}(W)$.Solution 14
$E(W) = 2E(X) + 3 = 2(5) + 3 = 13$..
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If you get this wrong, revise: Coding of Random Variables — Section 6.
Problem 15
Starting from $E(X(X-1)) = \sum_{k=0}^{n} k(k-1)\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}$Derive $\mathrm{Var}(X) = np(1-p)$ for $X \sim B(n,p)$.Solution 15
Using $k(k-1)\binom{n}{k} = n(n-1)\binom{n-2}{k-2}$:Then .
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If you get this wrong, revise: Direct derivation of from the PMF — Section 2.6.
Problem 16
$X \sim B(120, 0.025)$. (a) Show that the Poisson approximation is appropriate. (b) Use it to find $P(X = 5)$. (c) State why the normal approximation would not be appropriate here.Solution 16
(a) $n = 120 \gt 50$ and $p = 0.025 \lt 0.1$So the Poisson approximation is appropriate. $\lambda = np = 120 \times 0.025 = 3$.(b) .
(c) For the normal approximation we need and . Here So the normal approximation is not appropriate. The Poisson approximation is the correct choice Since is small.
If you get this wrong, revise: Poisson approximation to the Binomial — Section 4.7.
Problem 17
Temperatures in a city are modelled by $X \sim N(15, 9)$ in degrees Celsius. The temperature in Fahrenheit is $F = \frac{9}{5}X + 32$. Find $E(F)$, $\mathrm{Var}(F)$And $P(F \gt 68)$.Solution 17
$E(F) = \frac{9}{5}E(X) + 32 = \frac{9}{5}(15) + 32 = 27 + 32 = 59^\circ\mathrm{F}$..
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If you get this wrong, revise: Coding of Random Variables — Section 6.
## Common Pitfalls
Forgetting to check that solutions satisfy the original equation (especially with squaring both sides or dividing by variables).
Dropping negative signs during algebraic manipulation. Substitute back to verify your answer.
Rounding too early in multi-step calculations. Carry full precision through and round only the final answer.
Confusing the domain and range of functions, or not considering restrictions (e.g., denominator cannot be zero).
Summary
Section titled “Summary”The key principles covered in this topic are linked in the sub-pages above. Focus on understanding the definitions, applying the formulas or frameworks, and evaluating strengths and limitations of each approach.
Worked Examples
Section titled “Worked Examples”Worked examples demonstrating the application of key concepts are covered in the detailed sub-pages linked above.
Intuition
Section titled “Intuition”Mathematical thinking is about abstraction and pattern recognition. Numbers, shapes, and equations are tools for modelling reality - from calculating interest to predicting weather. The beauty of mathematics is that once a pattern is discovered, it can be applied universally. This connects algebra, geometry, and calculus into a coherent framework for understanding quantity, space, and change.